Yesterday, Gallup published a new study that took a look at each state in the union, and compared the partisan gap between Republicans and Democrats in 2008 and 2009.  The results showed that in a large majority of states, the advantage enjoyed by the Democratic Party has slipped – yet it does remain strong.

Interestingly, Maine comes in as the seventh highest slip in support for Democrats, losing six percentage points.  However, Maine still remains – according to Gallup – a net 13 point Democratic stronghold (48.1%-34.7%), earning the “solid Democrat” moniker.

The method to their madness was not looking at voter registration stats (according to the 2010 Almanac of American Politics, in 2008 Democrats only enjoyed a 5.6 point registration advantage over Republicans [33%-27.4%] – something that is undoubtedly smaller today) – but rather the result of a mash up of polling conducted by Gallup over the course of the year:

These results are based on aggregated data from Gallup Daily tracking in 2009, including interviews with more than 350,000 adults in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Gallup conducted at least 1,000 interviews in every state except Wyoming (878), North Dakota (968), Delaware (997), and the District of Columbia (632). Gallup interviewed more than 20,000 residents each in California, Texas, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Just for clarity, Gallup counted not only self-described Democrats or Republicans, but they also counted Independent “leaners” – i.e. people who have no loyalty, but mildly prefer one over the other – in their totals.  The results are, of course, not surprising for multiple reasons.

First, it comes as no shock that 2009 saw a slip in support for the Democratic Party in Maine.  This is part of a larger national trend that we are seeing, in response to the failure of Democrats to push through any kind of meaningful legislation in 2009, the skepticism circulating around ballooning deficits, and the solidifying opinion that the stimulus was unsuccessful and represented a fabulous waste of taxpayer dollars.  This is little more than the natural reaction of voters to unchallenged Democratic power in Washington, and Maine is no different.

Secondly, it is no shock that despite this, Democrats still enjoy a large lead in self-identification in Maine.  We are, of course, talking about a state that in 2008 voted for Barack Obama by 17 points, elected more than 90 Democratic members to the state House of Representatives, and 20 state Senators.  Even with some erosion of support for the Democrats, they are still in the driver’s seat.

But what does all of this mean for the upcoming elections in 2010 – particularly for Governor, and what I would consider a very vulnerable majority in the Maine Senate?

The answer?  Nothing.

Massachusetts, for example, still maintains a 29 point advantage for the Democrats – yet just handed Republican Scott Brown a five point state wide victory with incredibly high turnout.  He won 22% of Democrats, and over 70% of Independent voters in the state – the very same Independents who probably told Gallup that they leaned Democratic.

They say all politics is local, and in Maine this is especially true.  Voters in local elections tend not to care about your registration as much as they care if they have personally met you.  In the larger races – like the upcoming gubernatorial contest – identification with a candidate will matter much more than what party they belong to.

Which is just to say that each election is an individual contest with hundreds of variables involved, and no assumptions about who will win should be made by any survey like this from Gallup.

Popularity: 3% [?]