Is It Time For Some Candidates To Change Horses?

By Matthew Gagnon
January 28, 2010

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I have heard the same thing repeated in Republican circles for a few months now, but the cries have been getting louder lately.

“You mean to tell me that we can find seven solid candidates to run for Governor, but we can’t find anyone to run against Chellie Pingree?” The same phrase is repeated for Mike Michaud as well.

Ignoring for a moment that both CD-1 and CD-2 do in fact have Republicans running against the Democratic incumbents, the fact does remain that an untested – but quality – bench of Republicans in the state of Maine is currently fighting amongst themselves over one office, when they could in fact be spreading their talent around. The shame in it is that quality candidates who could likely be competitive or win in races for the State Senate or either congressional district are currently all in the same spot, and 6 out of 7 of them will lose.

I have heard it from all circles, and supporters of virtually all the different campaigns:

“Steve Abbott could have easily won the first district, and is really the only Republican who could have done it!”
“Paul LePage could really take on Mike Michaud, and he could win!”
“Bruce Poliquin is uniquely positioned to take on Chellie Pingree!”
“Peter Mills would be very hard to beat in the second district!”
“Matt Jacobson is exactly the kind of Republican who can beat Pingree!”

Granted, I haven’t heard those same things said about either Otten (probably because he gave money to Pingree) or Beardsley, but for the rest, those calls have been getting louder.

The prospect of a crowded primary field, and the identification of some actual political potential in these people has many Republicans bummed out that they are putting all their eggs in one basket. Rather than competing state wide in every office with a number of different talented individuals, they seem to be going for a “Blaine House or bust” strategy, to the detriment of the other races, most notably the two congressional seats.

Making the calls louder for some of the candidates to drop out and switch races is of course the national environment. Democrats are depressed, indepdendents are angry, and Republicans are energized – so if anyone is going to knowck off either Pingree or Michaud, this is probably the year that it has to happen.

Particularly among the first district Republicans, I am hearing borderline anger that no one (save Dean Scontras – who everyone seems to have already written off as unable to win) is stepping up to the plate to knock off Chellie Pingree. The logic goes that if nobody takes her out now, she will be in Congress as long as she wants, and will be Maine’s next U.S. Senator the moment Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins retires – a prospect that scares the living bejesus out of Maine Republicans.

Outrage is brewing that a candidate isn’t filling that hole – particularly Steve Abbott who nearly everyone I have spoken to seems to think could have had the seat easily this year if he wanted it. Poliquin and Jacobson would both have a more difficult time against Pingree – or at least that is the chatter I hear – but either one of them has a profile and specific talents that could bring her down.

But the same chatter is being directed at the second district Republicans. Mike Michaud has only faced one serious challenge, and this year will undoubtedly be his most difficult race since he faced off against Kevin Raye – so why have we attracted only one candidate to face him (Jason Levesque)?

Paul LePage has exactly the profile and reputation that could catch fire in the second district – a legitimate francophile who has been homeless, been on welfare, and knows exactly what it is like to face economic hardship – just like many of the voters in CD-2. In addition, he seems to be the consensus choice of the libertarian/tea-party activists – limited as they may be – while simultaneously having succeeded on Democratic turf multiple times. Similarly Peter Mills has great appeal among the second district that he could easily tap into.

As it stands right now – discounting the advantages and struggles some candidates may be facing in the gubernatorial primary, every candidate has roughly a 14.29% chance at winning the nomination, all things being equal. For some candidates who may be viewed as underdogs, that 14.29% is actually lower – in some cases (like Beardsley, for example) it is much lower.

Will any of these candidates start doing the math, and come to the conclusion that their success in the gubernatorial primary will be unlikely, prompting them to move to a more favorable situation?

Color me doubtful. I’ve talked to every campaign, and each one – and I mean this literally – is convinced that they are going to win the nomination, and that the chips are going to fall in their direction. To switch races, a candidate would need to make that decision as soon as possible, so they can mount a credible primary challenge to the single candidate in either race – and I see no indication of that happening.

But should they? Should the GOP candidates intentionally cut down on the field and flip into different races?

The activists certainly think so – it is all I have heard over the course of the last month.

What matters, however, is what the candidates think, and what the candidates want. So – personally, I do not expect to see or hear any announcements any time soon.

One wonders, though – on the day after the primary, will any of those six unsuccessful candidates look back on the race with regret, and ask themselves, “could I have done myself, my party, and my state a better service by taking on Pingree/Michaud instead?”

We can only guess.

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Tags: 2010 Gubernatorial Race, 2010 Republican Gubernatorial Primary, Bill Beardsley, Bruce Poliquin, Chellie Pingree, Dean Scontras, Jason Levesque, Les Otten, Maine's First Congressional District, Maine's Second Congressional District, Matt Jacobson, Mike Michaud, Paul LePage, Peter Mills, Steve Abbott

14 Responses to “Is It Time For Some Candidates To Change Horses?”

NickRobbins

28. Jan, 2010

Surely there are more than just seven Republicans in this state? Whatever happened to the Maine State GOP recruiting candidates, or at least encouraging the GOV gaggle to diversify?

This is the time to get into the House too, and such a time will not come again for a long time.
Jim

28. Jan, 2010

I disagree with your premise. I think it’s *great* to have so many great choices for governor, and I think we have two very strong candidates in each congressional district. You can’t force people into jobs they don’t want. I’m very happy with our slate of candidates and potential candidates statewide and in both CD’s.
Derrick Grant

28. Jan, 2010

Good post, and if the Republican Party really wanted to take the Blaine House back, they’d elect someone that can win in the general election, someone like Senator Peter Mills.
Dan Billings

28. Jan, 2010

Most of the people who say the things quoted in the article above are supporters of one of the candidates and want the candidate they are talking about to change races because it will help their chosen candidate.
Matthew Gagnon

28. Jan, 2010

Actually, I’ve heard just as many supporters of individual candidates for Governor say that about their own candidates as I have supporters of others saying it… also heard plenty of neutral parties say it too.

It is pretty uncontentious, I thought. We have seven candidates, at least four or five of which would be REALLY good candidates in other races… and our other races feature uncompetitive primaries, and dubious chances to win… I think it makes a lot of sense to talk about.
fratboy

29. Jan, 2010

I think Bruce Poliquin just positioned himself well to exit the GOP governor’s race when he came out in favor of mandatory background checks on all firearm sales:
http://www.asmainegoes.com/content/poliquin-yes-mandatory-background-checks-purchase-firearm

Maybe he should look at the first district now, cuz he ain’t going to win anything statewide with that position, republican or democrat.
Derek Viger

29. Jan, 2010

Derrick -

I think Mills is a strong candidate. He’s a moderate, has many good ideas, and done a great deal of work for the state. I agree he has an excellent chance of winning the general election. I don’t believe he has a great chance of winning the primary. I think many Republicans don’t like him BECAUSE of his moderate nature. There seems to be a hard push to get a “true conservative” nominated. I many Republican’s eyes, at least the online activists which are admittedly a different crowd, Mills just doesn’t pass the test.

Not that I condone that sort of litmus testing in either party.
Mike

29. Jan, 2010

I think Mills is an extraordinarily weak candidate. He would have no chance of winning the general election or the primary. He discusses at length obscure policy issues in what should be short, direct discussions. He’s sort of an older, less charismatic version of Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal.

If the Republican Party wants to get Maine back on track, they’ll ignore former members of the Green Party and nominate a reasonable conservative who will focus on jobs and the economy. Taking advice from someone who couldn’t manage to get elected to the Legislature is hardly the way to win a gubernatorial election.
Tom

29. Jan, 2010

I think Abbott would be better suited for a Congressional seat versus the Governors seat. That is where his experience is!!! Not here in Maine with the Maine Government.
Tom

29. Jan, 2010

On the other side of the coin, I think it is great to have such strong candidates, that want to make a difference in Maine. Maybe they all believe in Maine more than the Fed’s
Josh

30. Jan, 2010

I agree that the stampede for the Blaine house is a bit excessive, and the opportunity to knock off either Michaud or Pingree is better this year than it will be for a while. But the post seems very dismissive of both Scontras and Levesque. While I don’t know Levesque, I don’t believe Scontras deserves that treatment. He may well not win, but he has the retail skills and work ethic to make it happen.
Stephanie

01. Feb, 2010

“I think many Republicans don’t like him BECAUSE of his moderate nature.”

The majority of Maine Republicans are moderates. Look at the 2006 results – combine Emery and Mills votes. And that’s just the 70,000 Republicans who actually voted. There are 100,000+ more moderate Republicans out there who didn’t vote in June 2006.

Mills’ experience is in the statehouse. It’s not logical for him to run for a congressional office. He’s the only Republican candidate with any experience in the statehouse. We’re hiring someone to lead state government. Experience matters.
JimCyr

02. Feb, 2010

Peter’s problem isn’t which race to enter. It’s the fact that had he racked up his long history as a Democrat, he’d be a shoo-in for Governor today. He chose the wrong party, and now is trying to shoehorn his liberalismi into a fairly conservative Maine GOP primary. It won’t fit: his foot is too big (i.e. he can’t trick us; his record is too long).
FACTS:
Maine GOPers nominated conservative Chandler Woodcock in 2006.

Had Barbara Merrill not swiped a good number of votes from Woodcock, he would have been neck and neck with the incumbent Governor.

David Emery was slammed by Mills’ supporters in 2006 for being too conservative; now the history is revised and he was a moderate??
He was actually fairly conservative.

We said it before, and WE WILL SAY IT AGAIN: we do NOT want Peter Mills to represent us in the race for Governor. Not now, not ever.
John J Bouchard

02. Feb, 2010

Jim Cyr- You are right on target with Mr. Mills,
But when is he going to figure it out?????

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