One of the more interesting things to examine about Maine’s recent fight over same sex marriage is the cohesion of the people of a particular district (in this case, we will be examining the 35 Senate districts) to the vote of the elected representatives of those districts.

In other words, identifying which lawmakers voted differently than their district.  This can be seen as many things – a lesson in representative democracy and how it differs from direct democracy, profiles in courage for the legislators in question (or acts of betrayal, depending on your point of view), or the identification of a political wedge that can be taken advantage of in the next election.

Taking a look at the final numbers and matching the votes to the constituent parts of Maine Senate districts, I have identified a whopping twelve Maine Senators who voted differently than their district.  Only one of them – Republican Gerald Davis – opposed same sex marriage in the Senate, only to see his constituency vote in favor of it.  The rest were all positive votes in the Senate who saw their district oppose same sex marriage.

For those of you keeping track, that makes 10 Democrats and 2 Republicans who swam against the current on this issue.

It should of course be noted that more than one of these districts (specifically 19 and 5) were basically split on the issue, making the political fallout essentially the same for the Senator occupying that district, regardless of which side they ended voted for.

Below, I have the Senators ranked by how much they voted differently than their district.  The first number is the margin by which the district voted one way or another – in other words in District 17, voters chose to reject same sex marriage by 30.14%.  Senator Nutting voted in favor of same sex marriage, putting him in conflict with his district.

Here is a full breakdown.

• +30.14% -  Senate District 17 – John Nutting – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +28.00% -  Senate District 26 – Peter Mills – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +24.04% -  Senate District 14 – Bruce Bryant – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +20.20% -  Senate District 11 – Gerald Davis – Voted NO for Same Sex Marriage
• +17.66% -  Senate District 16 – Margaret Craven – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +15.64% -  Senate District 24 – Elizabeth Mitchell – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +15.12% -  Senate District 25 – Lisa Marrache - Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +9.78% -  Senate District 15 - Deborah Simpson – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +7.04% -  Senate District 12 – Bill Diamond – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +5.96% -  Senate District 30 – Elizabeth Schneider – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +0.98% -  Senate District 19 – Seth Goodall - Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage
• +0.04% -  Senate District 5 – Barry Hobbins – Voted YES for Same Sex Marriage

It is interesting that both Senator Peter Mills and Senator Libby Mitchell voted contrary to how their district ended up voting.  Both were thinking of running for governor when this vote occurred, both knew that they likely would not be running for re-election, and both were also likely looking to appear independent.  That is not to say that both of these votes were not their genuine beliefs, but they most certainly did have political implications as well.

The question now for the 2010 election is, “how far do these results go”?  Do Maine voters have the stomach for a culture war?  Will the Maine Republican Party seek to make an issue out of these ten Democrats (especially the 8 who saw their districts vote against them by more than 5 points) being out of step with their constituents on this issue?  Will the Democrat who faces Gerald Davis do the same?

If they do, will it work?  Will voters respond to that kind of politics?

My guess is no, this will not end up being a huge story line in the 2010 Senate elections.  Maine politics is much more about who voters have met, and local issues they articulate, and a lot less about this type of issue.  Often times, when such wedge issues are used against politicians (especially on the local level), it backfires.

Still, this is at the very least a very interesting diversion to think about.

We will be looking into the votes of the members of the Maine House as well in the coming days.

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