This morning, I got wind of an interesting rumor that would immediately shake up the race in Maine’s second congressional district.

Keep in mind, this is only a rumor at this point – but I am hearing some buzz that former Democratic candidate for United States Senate in 2006, Jean Hay Bright, is potentially considering jumping into the race for Congress in the 2nd district against Democrat Mike Michaud, and Republican Jason Levesque.

Hay Bright would be running to Michaud’s left, appealing to the liberal/progressive voters in the district.

Fueling this talk was some choice quotes from Hay Bright that were buried toward bottom of today’s Bangor Daily News story on an anti-war demonstration:

The president’s new policy prompted Jean Hay Bright, a former Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and other political posts, to march down to her local town office in Dixmont and unenroll herself from the Democratic Party.

“I was a battered Democrat,” said Hay Bright, who ran for her party’s nomination to the House of Representatives in 1994 and 1996 and for the U.S. Senate in 2006. Like the domestic violence victim who chooses to stay in an abusive relationship in the hope “things will get better,” Hay Bright said, she stuck with the party despite the lack of support she received from its upper echelons.

The president’s announcement on Tuesday, however, was the last straw for her.

“It’s just such a disappointment. We had such high hopes,” she said.

Obviously she is unhappy, and is now officially an unenrolled voter.

I attempted to contact Hay Bright, but have not heard back from her as of the publishing of this article.  If/when she gets back to me I will update this post.

If true, this should significantly worry Mike Michaud.  Hay Bright would certainly not win the election – but if she is in the race, there is no doubt that nearly every vote she would potentially get would be taken from Michaud (or somebody who would have stayed home) – almost none would be from Levesque.

If Hay Bright is able to syphon off 10-20% of the vote, that would place Michaud in significant danger.

In his last two elections – 2006 and 2008, Michaud has won by 30-40% each time.  It should be noted, however, that both of those elections were stunningly successful for Democrats, fueled in 2006 by anti-Bush sentiment and in 2008 by the election of Barack Obama.  Both years were devestatingly bad for Republicans, which no doubt gave a little boost to Michaud.

Looking back at 2004, Michaud was running for re-election in a banner Republican year. He faced a stiff challenge from Republican Brian Hamel, beating him 59.52% to 40.47% – a strong performance, but by far the lowest level of support among his re-election campaigns.

2010 is shaping up to be a decidedly anti-incumbent year, and the wind will be at the Republicans’ backs nationally.  Levesque is unquestionably a more serious contender than Michaud faced in 2008 with John Frary, and his campaign will be boueyed by the environment.  Additionally, this will be an off year election, which means turnout will be lower, and elections will be decided by turnout.  Turnout in 2010 will be driven by who cares more, and if things remain as they are right now, that means the right will be energized.

All of this points to an election that looks a lot more like 2004 than 2006 or 2008.  However, Levesque’s chances still remained pretty thin due to Michaud’s reputation and strength among much of the district.

But with the entry of Hay Bright – if it happens – the entire game changes.  If Michaud were to win re-election against Levesque alone by say a margin of 58-42, a third party challenge to his left could significantly alter that.  If she is able to cut into his votes by even 20%, Michaud will lose the election 42-38-20.

The good news for Michaud is that this is the 2nd district, not the first, and the base of liberal/progressive voters is not nearly as powerful.  The Democrats who are voting for Michaud in droves are much more culturally conservative than their 1st district cousins, and they are far more concerned with governmental intervention into the economy than they are with say the troop surge in Afghanistan.

This will mean that Hay Bright obtaining that threatening 15-20% will be a challenge.  And indeed, it is far too early to predict that Michaud would only get in the mid-50s for support against Levesque by himself – he could very well win by a much larger percentage, which would make him safe even if she did get that many votes.

Interestingly, if she poses enough of a threat to Michaud, he may be forced to turn to the left in order to hold together his base, which could possibly open up the center for Levesque to compete for and increase his share.  There are a lot of variables involved – but by any measure if she decides to get in, that is bad news for Michaud and good news for Levesque.

Will it happen?  I don’t know – right now it is FAR too speculative to spend any more time talking about.  When we hear more from Hay Bright, we will be in a better position to diagnose this race.

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