Last week, Dean Scontras – unsuccessful Republican primary candidate for CD-1 in 2008 and the man behind The Republican Project – let it slip he is forming an exploratory committee for another run at Maine’s first district, this time against an incumbent Congresswoman Chellie Pingree.  I didn’t cover this news – mostly because I was a tad busy last week – but I’d like to devote some space to this potential race now that I have a free moment.

The first question on our mind should be, “can he win”?

The quick answer is of course, “yes”.  In politics, almost anything can happen.  Unassailable candidates who are viewed as unbeatable are often taken out once that air of invincibility is popped.  Everyone’s favorite talking point these days – Sarah Palin – is proof of concept:  she took down the Murkowski political dynasty and the Republican establishment when almost no one gave her a chance.

That being said, Scontras has a very uphill battle ahead of him.  Lets take a look at what he’s facing.

The Good

I do not see a primary in his future.  One of the best things for a challenger to have ahead of them is an uncontested primary.  This consolidates support (most of the time) behind the nominee, will help unify the party, allow for easier fundraising, and most importantly will keep the Republican candidate from being damaged in his run up to facing an incumbent member of Congress.

Additionally, even as Democratic as the first district has been, it is not necessarily averse to being represented by a Republican.  Since the election of 1960, the first district has been represented by 5 Republicans and 5 Democrats.  Republicans have held the seat for a total of 20 years, Democrats for 30 years.  The average time a Democrat has been office has been 6 years, and outside Tom Allen who became a first district institution, most Democrats have been staying for 2 to 4 terms before moving on or being defeated.

Which is to say that we are not dealing with Georgia’s first congressional district, which (until the 1993 election) had been represented by a Democrat for 120 straight years.

Indeed, when one looks at the voter rolls, the first district is not overwhelmingly Democratic.  Looking at the 2006 registration data, we see that the first district has a net Democratic registration advantage of 3.5%, and unenrolled voters actually make up a majority of the district.  This means there is a vast middle ground that both parties will be fighting over – so if Scontras can beat Pingree by 5% or more in the independent demographic, he will have effectively neutralized her registration advantage.

Also great news for Scontras is the national mood.  In the past year it has turned decidedly anti-incumbent, and increasingly anti-Democrat.  Maine has not seen the growth of tea party activism to the degree that other states have, but there is no denying that with the generic ballot now favoring Republicans over Democrats, and congressional approval continuing to be in the low to mid 20% range, the mood is as potentially damaging to Pingree, and potentially beneficial to Scontras as it is likely to ever be.

The last time the national mood was like this was 1994, when 2 term incumbent Tom Andrews was replaced by Jim Longley, Jr.

The wave of down ticket support from president Barack Obama, who carried Maine by a whopping 17% in 2008, will not be there.  The president is not on the ballot, so his coattails will not be there to help Pingree either.  She won by a relatively skinny 10% in one of the most lopsided Democratic years in recent history, and against an opponent who was not even campaigning full time in the district.

Scontras will be there campaigning hard, and 2010 voters will be dramatically different than 2008 voters.  All of that points to a net positive for Scontras.

The Bad

Pingree is an incumbent.  In 2008 only 23 incumbents were defeated when they chose to run for re-election.  Voters tend to vote to re-elect whoever they already have in place, unless that person has done something that really irritates the voters of the district, and right now there are no indications that Pingree’s popularity is in decline, or that her overall approval rating is low.  Famously, voters always tend to hate Congress, but love their individual congressman/woman.

It should also be noted that for all of their similarities, this is not 1994.  The national Republican leadership is not as unified, as tactically grounded, or as politically savvy as the coalition put together by Newt Gingrich.  Anti-establishment and anti-incumbent sentiment does not necessarily benefit the Republicans as it did in 1994, as many of the people fed up with government are just as fed up with Republicans due to their time in power in the 2000s.  This will make the case harder for Scontras to make than it was for Longley.

Scontras will almost certainly face a fundraising gap.  In the period Scontras was raising money for his run for Congress in 2007 and 2008 (basically July 3rd, 2007 up until June 9th, 2008), he hauled in roughly $226,907. During that exact same period (note: Pingree started fundraising months before Scontras, so we are only counting the amount raised during that same exact time period), Pingree raised $1,018,028.  In other words, Pingree was able to raise a great deal more money than Scontras in the same time period, and given her incumbency, one would assume that same advantage would hold true.  (To provide a ray of hope, however, it should be noted that Charlie Summers, the eventual primary winner, did rake in several hundred thousand dollars during that same period, so if uncontested, Scontras will probably be able to count on that amount of money as well.)

Also of concern for Scontras is his particular brand of true believer conservatism.  He does not hide the fact that he considers himself a “Reagan Republican”, and is fully on board with the national party planks regarding abortion, gay marriage, and other social issues.

The first district, however, is quite socially liberal.  Even as the gay marriage vote took a drubbing state wide, in the first district, the “No on 1″ folks actually prevailed, winning by roughly 16,000 votes and 5 percentage points.  This was in the most favorable environment possible for social conservatism in Maine (i.e. an off year election with an anti-Democrat national mood), which means that no matter how you slice it, the first district does not match Scontras social views.  It is also dramatically pro-choice, while the second district is far more balanced.

Pingree will undoubtedly attempt to “Creigh Deeds” Scontras on these social issues, and his only hope is to follow the Bob McDonnell campaign’s lead and talk nothing but jobs and economy, while downplaying or outright deflecting charges of extreme social conservatism.  Scontras, however, will face a much more hostile audience than McDonnell did in Virginia.

Overall Outlook

There is no doubt that this will be an uphill battle for Scontras.  He may have the wind at his back in some respects, but defeating Chellie Pingree in Maine’s first district will take a perfect storm.  He will need to focus like a laser on kitchen table issues.  Of primary concern will be jobs, the economy, and other fiscal issues that are worrying independent voters.  If attacked on his social conservatism, he can not take the bait and start a culture war in territory he simply can not win.  He has to position himself as the fresh faced outsider, and Pingree as the quintessential Washington insider – somebody who is part of the problem.

Does he have the discipline, resources, and drive to make this a competitive race?  Only time will tell.  But in politics, you can never count anyone out and this race will be no different.

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