A few days ago, I made the argument that gay marriage lost in Maine because proponents were unable to persuade “middle Maine” – the somewhat suburban voters who were probably able to be convinced on the subject, but were simply not won over.  These are people who are hardly “anti-gay”, but still remained (at least during this vote) opposed to an extension of marriage rights to homosexual couples.

After doing some additional research and analysis, what I have found reinforces that opinion.

Today, I would like to specifically take a look at the differences in the 2005 ballot question which asked voters if they wanted to reject the law that would protect people from discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations and credit based on their sexual orientation, and the 2009 gay marriage vote.

Comparing and contrasting these two votes is important, because it shows us two separate baseline “checkpoints” – namely what areas of the state were supportive of an extension of protections to homosexuals when it came to matters of jobs, housing, etc, and what areas of the state were supportive of full gay marriage.

By noting the differences between these two votes, we can identify the areas of the state which flipped – in other words, those towns which supported an extension of gay rights in 2005, but did not support them in 2009.  This will essentially show us the areas of the state where No on 1 failed to “close the sale” – people who were most likely at least willing to listen, but simply didn’t get convinced.

Take a look, the results are pretty striking.  Faded red is areas that have voted for additional gay rights in both elections, faded green are areas that voted against in both, and the sharp brown areas represent town that voted for additional gay rights in 2005, but then voted against them in 2009 :

Or if you would prefer to see the map in a more dynamic way, here’s a neat .gif I made, just for you:

And then of course, here is a side by side map for you as well, if you’d prefer:

Looking at these maps you can see something very clearly.  The inland areas of Maine (especially striking in “progressive” southern Maine), which are off the coast and slightly west I-95 flipped rather significantly.  Particularly striking is the change we saw in significant parts of York, Oxford and Cumberland counties.

But that isn’t the only area we saw significant change.  Androscoggin, Kennebec, Waldo and Penobscot county saw some big shifts as well.

For those not entirely familiar with Maine’s geography, the areas I have just listed and those you see on the map turning from pro-gay rights to anti-gay marriage are (for the most part – the exception being the areas in the south-west next to New Hampshire) right up the I-95 corridor.  In other words, we are talking about towns that are within 10 miles from the main transportation artery in the state.  Here’s an overlay of where I-95 and the Turnpike are in relation to the towns who changed their minds in 2009:

That is important, because the middle class, quasi-suburban “middle Maine” cities and towns of the state line 95.  Economic development occurs in and around the interstate, and is severely depressed in the rest of the state.  This strikes to the heart of what I was saying previously about just who is responsible for Yes on 1 winning this vote.

The people who were receptive to voting for gay rights in 2005, and thus open to a good argument, but voted against gay marriage in 2009 were middle class suburbanites in the small to medium sized satellite towns that were within striking distance of larger cities and transportation corridors.

For any future battles over gay rights – be it civil unions, or a renewed push for gay marriage, it is those towns on the map colored sharp brown that must be the focus.  Flipping each of those towns by 5-10% would represent a dramatic shift in the statewide result, and will be absolutely necessary for anything to be upheld.

Popularity: 5% [?]