NOTE: I had the opportunity to write a piece on the Maine gay marriage fight which appeared in Politico today:

Long thought of as a “liberal” state by national political observers, Maine, whose voters on Tuesday voted down gay marriage, proved that cultural conservatism is — at least on this issue — alive and well in the Northeast.

Maine is politically unpredictable and proud of it. With a propensity for electing independent and third-party candidates more than other states, and a history of ticket splitting (Maine gave landslides to President Barack Obama in 2008, as well as Republican Sen. Susan Collins), the Pine Tree State has a history of being what some might call capricious.

The Maine Legislature approved gay marriage earlier this year, and Democratic Gov. John Baldacci quickly signed the measure into law. However, Maine has a mechanism whereby voters can “veto” a law — and opponents of the law managed to get it on the ballot.

National observers had been predicting a victory for the “No on 1” campaign for the better part of the past month. Poll after poll conducted in the state showed a close contest but also one that gave an advantage to those who wanted to uphold the gay marriage law. What we saw on the ground was very different: The final tally showed the veto winning by more than 30,000 votes.

Already, the narrative is being written by proponents of gay marriage that the failure of the No on 1 campaign was, more than anything, due to another subpar organizational effort on behalf of the progressive coalition to defend equal marriage.

To be fair, the main organization pushing for a rejection of the veto — No on 1/Protect Maine Equality — was disciplined, ran excellent television ads, made use of social media and worked hard. But it needed more help than it got.

At the local level, many allies that were being counted on to bring home the vote simply weren’t sufficiently engaged. Human Rights Campaign President Joe Solmonese was widely criticized not only for fielding a subpar effort to support the defense of the law but for not even offering any personal contribution to No on 1. This, on top of other disjointed and haphazard support organizations that simply did not rally the troops sufficiently, has left many people in Maine questioning the commitment of ally groups.

In addition, activists are directing their ire toward national groups for not showing up at the fight. At the center of this is Organizing for America — the Democratic National Committee’s community-organizing arm and heir to the president’s grass-roots network — which is being hit for not only ignoring the state but actively diverting resources from Maine to other campaigns across the country.

On Tuesday morning, reports began to circulate that OFA had been sending e-mail appeals to Maine voters, asking them to make phone calls for Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, yet had not sent out any mobilization requests to vote “no” on Question 1. As Election Day wore on, additional complaints about OFA sending appeals such as the ones for New Jersey continued.

This reinforces an existing opinion among many activists — namely, that the White House has been paying little more than lip service to the gay rights agenda and is not serious about standing up for equality.

Meanwhile, opponents of gay marriage mobilized a truly impressive network, fueled in large part by an aggressive push by the Roman Catholic Church. Maine is more Catholic than most states, and churches have proved to be one of the most effective political mobilization tools for cultural conservatives. That power, coupled with an assist from a well-organized campaign by Stand for Marriage Maine, an enthusiastic base and other ally groups, turned out to be the glue that drove the results.

I argued before the election that the polls showing strength for No on 1 were potentially inaccurate. This was because of a version of the “Bradley effect” and an enthusiasm gap between the people who would vote no and those who actually turn out to vote. That skepticism of the polls proved prescient.

So in the end, what really doomed gay marriage in Maine appears to be much of what doomed it in California just one year ago: a poorly organized coalition to fight for marriage equality, a cohesive and well-organized opposition and a higher level of enthusiasm (with little notice) among opponents.

Matthew Gagnon runs the Maine political news and analysis site PineTreePolitics.com. He was a candidate for the Maine House of Representatives in 2004.

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