I’ve been asked so many times I can barely bring myself to write this article – “what do you think will happen on election day with question 1?”  Usually this is followed up by a query on question 3.  Then people typically ask me about question 4.

There has been plenty of polling about all of these initiatives, but polls don’t really tell you as much as you might think they do in off year elections.

What will matter this year, particularly for questions 1 and 4, is turnout.  Who will turn out more voters to the polls – the forces of yes, or the forces of no?  In races like these, that is what matters more.

If you’d like to get into the fun of predicting these things yourself, Mike Tipping of Maine Politics is running a pool again this year.  I’ve entered it (though I already have forgotten what I put in), and I invite you to as well.

What follows here is my breakdown of how I think these questions will fall tomorrow.  Disclaimer: even the most skilled political analysts in the world have a tough time handicapping close races in off year elections for ballot questions.  There are too many unpredictable factors.  So, ahead of time I ask that you go easy on me if I am way off the mark on these predictions.  I promise, my analysis and accuracy on state house and senate races, as well as gubernatorial contests will be much better.

Question 1

Text – “Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?”

Prediction – Yes 48%, No 52%

Analysis – We have seen poll after poll either bounce between a dead heat on this question, or a modest victory for the “no on one” side.  But beware the (varient) Bradley effect in this race, for two reasons.

First, when polled, voters many times feel uncomfortable giving an answer that they feel the person polling will interpret negatively, resulting in a judgment against them – even if it is how they really feel.  This could be skewing many of these poll results more toward the no side than is reality.

Second, many of the people who indicate they support gay marriage in such a poll do so out of a tepid sense of fairness, but are not passionate about the issue.  This may depress such respondents from going to the polls if they have no other issue that calls them to the voters box.  People who answer “yes”, however, are likely much more energized and firm in their convictions on this question.

In other words, the cohesion of a yes voter in these polls actually showing up on election day and registering a yes is higher than the no voter, and many of the indicated no voters may not even be no voters anyway.

All of that said, I have a nagging suspicion that the no on one folks will in fact pull it off.  I have seen a much stronger mobilization effort so far on that side of the isle, and suspect that will translate on election day.

Still, no matter how this turns out, this is going to most likely be extremely close.  It would not surprise me at all if the “silent majority” of culturally conservative, anti gay marriage voters in the state came out in droves for both this question, and question 4 (which could be the wild card in this – cross question motivation to get to the polls), tipping the balance toward a veto.

It is anybody’s game, and it is all about turnout, energy and mobilization.  I’m betting on the no crowd, but anything could happen here.

Question 2

Text – “Do you want to cut the rate of the municipal excise tax by an average of 55% on motor vehicles less than six years old and exempt hybrid and other alternative-energy and highly fuel-efficient motor vehicles from sales tax and three years of excise tax?”

Prediction -  Yes 53%, No 47%

Analysis – Question 2 would reduce or repeal the excise tax on new cars.  While this sounds like a no brainer for most voters, who typically vote out of self-interest, the no on 2 lobby has run a very effective campaign.  Some observers feel that the momentum in this race is on the side of the opponents, given their rhetoric about cuts in municipal services and rising property tax rates.

Still, no matter how effective a campaign is, my spidey sense leads me to believe that in this year, in this particular environment, voters are in a very grumpy mood about taxes.  I can already forsee more than one conversation with ones self in a ballot box:  “I hate paying excise tax on my car, and you know what, screw those bums in the government.  If they have to do with less, I won’t shed any tears”, right before they check a yes.

Given the strength of the no campaign, I think this will be a rather close vote, but in the end goes with the yes vote.

Question 3

Text – “Do you want to repeal the 2007 law on school district consolidation and restore the laws previously in effect?”

Prediction -Yes 54%, No 46%

Analysis - Everyone, and I do mean everyone that I have talked to about school consolidation has essentially said, “well, I think consolidation is a good idea, but I really don’t like how this was done.  I’d have done it differently.”  That is what most of the politicos running for governor have said to me (with a couple exceptions), that is what the blogging community in Maine seems to believe, and that’s what average voters I’ve talked to believe.

However, no on three has the power of the governor (for whatever that is worth) behind it, as well as a well funded, and well organized campaign.

This race could go many different ways.  Do people vote out of self interest?  If so, the law probably won’t be repealed and the governor can claim victory – most people in the state aren’t effected by the consolidation.  Do people vote based on their opinion of John Baldacci?  If so, the law will probably be repealed and Baldacci will face a painful referendum on his tenure.

Personally, as well run as the no on 3 campaign has been run, I have a feeling this one is going to be a black eye for the Governor.  I go back to the fact that I haven’t really met anyone who likes the school consolidation proposal (even if they support it, they aren’t exactly enthusiastic about it), coupled with some pretty real hostility toward the governor, mixed in with a strong rural turnout of people who don’t like the idea of their communities being lumped in together administratively – and I think that will ultimately power a repeal of the consolidation bill.

Question 4

Text – “Do you want to change the existing formulas that limit state and local government spending and require voter approval by referendum for spending over those limits and for increases in state taxes?”

Prediction -Yes 51% , No 49%

Analysis – Tabor II is just as contentious as Tabor I was.  It has seen an aggressive campaign on both sides, some huge backers, and lots and lots of prognostication.  Many people have pointed to the 2006 rejection of TABOR, and suggested that we are likely to see something similar this year.

But 2009 is not 2006.  The economy is in the toilet, jobs are lost, and more than just a few Mainers are very concerned about the level of taxation, spending and debt being incurred nationally, and wasteful excess at the state level. Some of the government boondoggles instituted in Augusta – like Dirigo Health – have become more apparent and more egregious, and that has soured faith of many voters that the legislature can be a good steward of the people’s money.

It is a lot easier to be tolerant of excess spending and inefficiencies when there is plenty, but when resources are stretched thin, the mind of the voter gets impatient with such things.  In 2006 we had plenty, in much 2009, we have little.

Still, that alone won’t drive this question to victory.  In 2006, TABOR lost 54-46 (by roughly 41,000 votes), so to win this time it will require flipping at least 21,000 votes – all things being equal.

Will that happen?  I am actually flipping back and forth on this.  For weeks, I have been saying that I think this question will break similarly to how it did last time, just with a smaller margin.  But lately I’ve just been getting a feeling of sorts, that maybe the yes on 4 coalition is stronger this time.

So, I am changing my opinion on this one (something I may regret later) – I think TABOR II will end up narrowly squeaking by, mostly on the back of a fed up electorate who is sick of Augusta ineptly wasting money.

Question 5

Text – “Do you want to change the medical marijuana laws to allow treatment of more medical conditions and to create a regulated system of distribution?”

Prediction – Yes 59%, No 41%

Analysis – In 1999, Maine voters didn’t sweat approving medical marijuana.  Demographics haven’t changed much, and neither has the national mood on the subject (if anything, it has become more permissive).  I don’t see any reason why the voters won’t behave very similarly to the last time.

Question 6

Text – “Do you favor a $71,250,000 bond issue for improvements to highways and bridges, airports, public transit facilities, ferry and port facilities, including port and harbor structures, as well as funds for the LifeFlight Foundation that will make the State eligible for over $148,000,000 in federal and other matching funds?”

Prediction – Yes 58%, No 42%

Analysis – As I stated before, the mood has become very hostile to stat government spending and wasting money.  But one bond issue – no matter the state, and no matter the voter – tends to get support from most people.  And that issue is transportation and roads.

Last year, the bond issue on the ballot narrowly squeaked by, but that question was about wastewater treatment – hardly an issue that is on the top of people’s minds on a daily basis.

Potholes, and driving around a rural state on the other hand, is something people think about daily.  The voters of Maine will be alright with borrowing some money, as long as it means they might not have to realign their car every 100 miles.

Question 7

Text – “Do you favor amending the Constitution of Maine to increase the amount of time that local officials have to certify the signatures on direct initiative petitions?”

Prediction – Yes 57%, No 43%

Analysis – I bet you didn’t even know this question was on the ballot.  This is not a very contentious issue, and nobody seems to care about it.  In such cases, that usually means it is well on its way to acceptance.

Popularity: 2% [?]