I love being right.  Its so much fun.

All eyes were on Olympia Snowe yesterday, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced that the Senate plan would in fact include a public option – but would also allow an “opt-out” by states who do not want to participate in the system.  Observers wondered if Snowe, who has signaled some willingness to talk about a “trigger” for a public option would be on board with such an idea.  Any hope of that was quickly deflated:

“I am deeply disappointed with the majority leader’s decision to include a public option as the focus of the legislation,” Ms. Snowe said. “I still believe that a fallback, safety-net plan, to be triggered and available immediately in states where insurance companies fail to offer plans that meet the standards of affordability, could have been the road toward achieving a broader bipartisan consensus in the Senate.”

Remember when I said that in the end, I still believed Snowe would end up voting against healthcare reform on the Senate floor, and that her conservative critics were angry at her for all the wrong reasons?  Looks a lot more like that is how this is going to go, doesn’t it?

Reid’s plan has already driven away the last vestiges of bi-partisanship.  Interestingly, the left isn’t exactly thrilled with the plan either – but in the end it may just be a negotiating ploy.  If, for example, the opt-out idea  doesn’t gain real traction, it seems likely Reid would turn to the “trigger” idea as a form of “compromise”, which could potentially attract Snowe.  This all could be a huge game of charades, and Reid’s opening bid could have been intentionally high so that the deal he strikes later is closer to what he wants.  So in the end, even though I still think she will not vote for the bill, it remains a possibility if that is what Reid is doing.

But back to this development.  Several progressives are beside themselves, unable to wrap their brain around why Snowe might have some concerns with the Reid plan.  Take, for example, the folks over at The Seminal:

But why on earth is the Senator from Maine “deeply disappointed?” She just got everything she requested, and Harry Reid even figured out how to answer the question her own proposal raised.

If Olympia Snowe doesn’t want the citizens of Maine to have the choice of a public option, then Harry Reid’s solution allows her the opportunity to convince the voters and officials of her state to opt out of the national public plan that will likely be an available choice to citizens in other New England states. And as far as we know, Maine could then set it’s own trigger, either for making that decision in the first instance, or presumably to unmake it should some circumstances occur that convinces Maine it made a mistake.

The lady wanted triggers and state control. She got them.

What they fail to understand is that the idea of opting out is nothing more than a political maneuver.  Reid knows that no Governor in their right mind, save perhaps Rick Perry of Texas, would actually opt out of the plan.  Reid knows that whoever did would get slaughtered by his or her state, and lawmakers would feast on anyone that daring.  Why?  Because (much like the stimulus), taxes are being extracted from a state for use by the national government, and the taxpayers of said state would not see any benefit.

This all means that the opt-out clause is a political game, and nothing more.  Reid knows that if this plan passes, the public option is effectively in force in all 50 states, and as Snowe has publicly said (repeatedly), she does not favor a public option.

So, why is she disappointed?  Easy – because Reid’s move is nothing more than a rhetorical ploy to get the plan passed.  It is a side door public option (I’d call it a back door, but it is too obvious), and Snowe has no interest in it.

If this is the proposal that comes before the full Senate, do not expect the senior Senator from Maine to vote for it.  And, I think at this point, you can be certain Collins has no interest either.

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