PPP Thinks Snowe Will Have To Switch Parties

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PPP Thinks Snowe Will Have To Switch Parties

By Matthew Gagnon on Monday, October 26, 20097 Comments

Last Wednesday, PPP took a look at Senator Olympia Snowe’s standing in Maine – an interesting exercise given her national profile on the healthcare reform debate.

The results of the poll were rather striking. 70% of Democrats approve of her job performance while only 45% of Republicans approve of her. As PPP points out, that means she has a higher approval among Democrats than several Democratic Senators they have polled in other other states. The only Senators who perform worse in their own party are Jim Bunning and Roland Burris.

And there in lies the basis of what PPP says next. They believe that Snowe may be forced to change parties before her next election in 2012, in order to avoid a primary fight that would knock her out of the Senate.

PPP explains:

Snowe may end up having no choice on whether to switch parties if she wants to get reelected in 2012. Among conservative Republicans, who tend to dominate primary electorates, her approval rating is only 31% with 59% disapproving of her. And specifically on the issue of health care just 19% approve of her actions with 65% disapproving.

The wrath of the Club for Growth eventually made renomination as a Republican impossible for Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and it will be interesting to see if the same thing plays itself out in Maine.

There are a few problems with the logic of PPP, however.

First of all, Maine is not Pennsylvania. The Maine Republican Party may be for all intents and purposes impotent, but they aren’t stupid. They know that the Republican bench in this state is extremely thin, and even if a conservative Republican were to knock off Snowe in a primary, that person’s ability to win statewide would be in serious question. The state party would in all likelihood do whatever they could to dissuade a challenge to Snowe, for fear of a party switch (or successful primary campaign) from happening, and the seat being lost.

Additionally, finding a conservative Republican with a significant enough profile to actually mount a serious challenge would be difficult in the first place, because most state level GOP leadership view Snowe as untouchable. There are no vocal anti-Snowe leaders in the Republican Party – in Pennsylvania, there were a plethora of anti-Specter leaders to draw from, many of which (such as Pat Toomey) were well known, powerful, and could mount a credible campaign.

And on top of that, Snowe has been one of the leading Republicans who has tried to dissuade moderates like Lincoln Chafee from abandoning the GOP, and has been vocal about the fact that Republicans did not have to lose many of the moderates it has. On top of that, despite her squabble with conservatives, Barbara Boxer expressed how difficult it is to get her to switch:

“I’ve asked [Olympia Snowe]) a million times to become a Democrat,” said Senator Boxer. “But she really believes in the principles [of the Republican party].”

Things can change. Arlen Specter himself once said he would never change parties, and did exactly that only months later.

But Maine isn’t Pennsylvania, and Snowe isn’t Specter. I wouldn’t put money on it.

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7 Comments »

Mike said:

Right. Arlen has been a sleazy flip-flopper throughout his career, Olympia has not.

- 26 October 2009 at 1:23 PM

Alex Hammer said:

It’s interesting when you look at what happenned with Joe Lieberman (popular in CT overall but defeated in Dem primary)

Senator Snowe has had close to record-breaking margins of victory in Maine, and conservative candidates haven’t done well in statewide elections in ME in recent decades.

I don’t see Snowe as being vulnerable.

- 26 October 2009 at 3:31 PM

Nathan D. said:

Taking Matt’s argument a step further, I’d argue that not only is Snowe secure in her seat as a Republican, but her pattern of landslide general election victories in the face of steadily declining voter registration from her own party is one that GOP reps in other moderate states with Democratic majorities and active Independent blocs long to emulate.

The historical surety of Snowe’s seat is one of the reasons she has enjoyed a relatively powerful influence in the Senate, especially considering she represents such a tiny electorate.

Republican groups would do well to recognize (publicize??) that the strategy of embracing their more moderate candidates in states where they’ve been losing clout is their best opportunity for revitalization.

The fact that Snowe refuses to switch parties and actually continues to vocally champion conservative principles despite lack of in-house support should make her a GOP icon. The question is whether the party’s conservative wing will sign on.

- 27 October 2009 at 9:00 AM

Sarah P said:

I disagree. If Olypmia wins again she will do it with the vote of Democrats. The only Republicans that are going to vote for her are moderates like her. Conservatives have all sworn off her. Expect to see “Snowe shoveling” costumes this halloween. The moderates in the Republican party need to be taught a lesson.

- 27 October 2009 at 2:46 PM

Nathan D. said:

It would be a dangerous move for a party teetering on the verge of marginalization to suggest to its moderate members that they’re not wanted, even if that’s the truth. Ceding the ample middle ground to the opposition when they have already secured majorities in both state-level and national government, as well as overall voter registration, might not be the best strategy to employ if the goal is to regain influence over policy.

If you’ve got less folks at the rally, it doesn’t matter how loud you yell.

Citizen intiatives were not designed to be a continuous mechanism for legislation, and yet if the GOP continues to see its influence wane by angrily casting off its few tremendously successful candidates, the ballot question might be the only device left to advocate for conservative values.

At this vantage, the party has to realize that it needs both wings, desperately. They’ll keep Snowe, and gladly.

- 27 October 2009 at 4:42 PM

Matthew Gagnon said:

Sarah, just so we are all aware here, that PPP poll showed that even though her standing in the GOP isn’t great, she still has the support of about 50% of Republicans. That’s hardly something to sneeze at.

The theory I operate on is this:

To enact ANYTHING in the center-right mold in this country, we want a Republican majority.

That means that no matter how much it makes you kick and scream, in some Congressional districts, and in some statewide races, that will mean electing a less-than-conservative Republican.

In areas where a conservative Republican CAN be elected, there is no reason to nominate a squish, when a conservative can win. In places where it is highly unlikely a conservative can win, we push for a Republican to be elected who is as conservative as they can be, but maybe more in the center to center-right mold.

This is where Snowe comes in. You know damned well Sarah, that no “conservative Republcian” in Maine will win statewide right now. None of them have the stature, notoriety, or otherwise the ability to run and win.

I’ve made the case – many times before – that conservative Republicans CAN win statewide, but they sure as hell aren’t going to do it when the bench is so thin. A staunch conservative who is a state house member from the middle of nowhere, and no one knows them simply is not going to be a better candidate than Olympia, because even if they magically knocked her off, they’d lose statewide.

Its time for the Maine GOP to get its act together. Start taking politics seriously and build coalitions that will get you elected, and get you majorities in the state house and senate. Elect a governor. Get some Republicans in those “minor league” seats that will prepare them to make a REAL run at the Senate some day.

Olympia came from Congress. Collins had run statewide before and had worked for Cohen. We need to get some Republicans ready, get them some legitimacy… THEN we can talk about getting a more conservative person elected to the Senate.

For now, since the state of the GOP is so pathetic, and there is literally no one who would even be SERIOUS if they ran statewide, its time to shut up about Olympia, swallow the bitter pill, and move on.

The anger and energy Republican activists spend hating Snowe would be so much better directed if it were toward electing a new crop of quality conservatives in Maine, so that they can actually be taken seriously enough to one day run for Snowe’s seat.

- 27 October 2009 at 5:09 PM

fred said:

The dwindling enrollment in the Republican party could push things towards Snowe having a serious primary challenge. As more and more moderate Republicans have re-enrolled as Independents (technically we are called “Un-enrolled” in Maine), the % of the remaining Republicans who are far right idealogues goes up. Additionally the ideologues are much more likely to turn out and vote in primaries.

If the trend continues, then at some point the moderate faction of the party will be over ruled (see Woodcock, Chandler).

If Snowe were to lose the Republican primary she could probably win the general as an Independent, IF state election law gives her time to do so, but the timing and deadlines may require her to declare her Independent run before the Republican primary..

- 10 November 2009 at 2:26 PM