Peter Mills Officially Running For Governor
We all knew this was coming – Peter Mills is running for Governor of Maine once more. Despite speculation that Mills would go the independent route, the state Senator from Cornville filed his paperwork today to run in the GOP primary. As our friends at Augusta Insider correctly note, Maine has a one and done rule for elections, meaning that if he loses the GOP primary, he can not then simply run as an Independent.
Inside baseball: Pennsylvania also has a rule like this, which is what ultimately drove Senator Arlen Specter to change party registration, rather than face off with Pat Toomey in a GOP primary there. He could not have then run as an Independent, and Specter really wants to stay in the cool kids club.
This means that Mills’ recent flirtations with the left were not setting him up for an independent run (something this writer personally thinks would have been a genius move on his part), but instead designed to appeal to the moderate/liberal wing of the Maine GOP.
Mills can correctly claim that the Maine Republican Party shot itself in the foot by nominating Chandler Woodcock in 2006. Baldacci was extremely unpopular, and Mills (who has been described as a fiscal conservative and social moderate) would have likely coasted to the Blaine House were he to have been nominated, while Woodcock was a rock ribbed social conservative in a state that doesn’t particularly get too excited about social issues like many of our friends from the south.
In essence, he could have won, could have denied Baldacci a second term, and could have put some Republican fiscal sense into Augusta.
However, this is 2009, not 2006 and a few things have changed. His courting of the left has shattered the faith many Republicans have in him, as he has broken with the party on a few issues that many within the GOP see as litmus tests for membership in the party:
- He voted for gay marriage
- He supported the tax reform bill
- He is cozying up to the left on healthcare reform, while hanging out with the SEIU and Moveon
Mills’ greatest argument was that he was a socially tolerant, fiscally conservative candidate. I have long argued that this is exactly where Maine voters are ideologically – they don’t really want the government pushing social policy, and they really want some fiscal relief and sound management – and he could have filled that quite easily.
But with tax reform and now healthcare reform, Mills is blowing a hole in the idea that he is a fiscal conservative. Many Maine Republicans are left wondering if he is center-left on social issues, and now appears to be center-left on fiscal issues as well, why should he deserve the support of the grassroots?
Only time will tell, and we shall see if he can deftly spin his recent breaks with the fiscal conservatives in his favor to convince the primary crowd to vote for him. But he had better do something, as it appears there are several other candidates who mean business in the GOP field this year, none of which come with the social conservative baggage that Woodcock carried with him.
But still, at this point he is clearly the most well known (at least politically) figure in the Republican primary, he can clearly win statewide, and a lot of Republicans are sick of losing. That makes a strong argument.
Popularity: 40% [?]
Give one piece of evidence that Mills “can clearly win statewide”. He’s only ever been elected in Cornville.
Why do you run this blog from Virginia?
Because he is palatable enough to voters to appeal to some Republicans, many Independents, and a few Democrats. I didn’t say he would be a cakewalk, just that he can clearly have a chance to win state wide… he would have won (easily, in my estimation) in 2006 had he been nominated.
I wasn’t saying he was my choice in the primary, just a statement of fact, man.
Why do I run the blog from Virginia? Well, just a stab in the dark here, but probably because I live in Virginia. I grew up in Maine, lived there for 25 years, ran for office in Maine… but moved to the DC area for job opportunities – I was a Political Science major afterall.
My physical location matters, why?
I don’t think Peter will tee off on Chandler. They actually get along rather well, and Peter worked hard for Chandler after the primary, so he’d be shooting himself in the foot if he did. People know that without Peter getting it out. Chandler’s problems were as much his organization and his personal style as his conservatism.
@Augusta Insider:
Oh, I completely agree – I didn’t mean to imply that Mills would use the “see I could’ve won” argument on the campaign trail, I more meant it in the general sense that it is generally accepted that Mills would have fared better than Chandler, that’s all.
And I think you’re right about not counting him out – in a race with 4 (or 5, or 6, or 7….) candidates you can’t count anyone out. That’s both good and bad for the GOP. We’ll look at this primary more in-depth on augustainsider.us later this week.
There has been some chatter on various sites that should Mills chose to run the GOP contenders might as well throw in the towel.
My estimation of the Maine Repubs is that they are much closer to the middle than other states. A Republican in Maine is not necessarily the same as one in Utah let’s say. Maine GOPers seem to hold strong to the Goldwateresque party ideals, low taxes, fiscal responsibility, and small government. When in comes to social issues I get the feeling that ME GOPers are more open than most, taking an almost libertarian approach of “stay out of my business and I’ll stay out of yours.
Having not been involved in GOP politics until fare am I way of base here? If I’m not it appears Mills stands a good chance of winning the nomination at the least.
Well that chatter is garbage, IMHO (about Mills trouncing everyone).
If any of the three business guys can become the consensus “fiscal conservative” choice, I think it will be a dog fight and they would have a rather big chance to knock off the big dog.
Personally, though, I think they’ll all split the vote, and Mills will be fighting for a small share himself. I see the 1994 eight way Republican nomination fight that Susan Collins won repeating itself.
As to what the Maine GOP is, I think you are mostly right. I think the partisans who are in the power structure of the Maine GOP try to be more “traditional” in their views (at least from what I have observed having participated in the party in Maine), lining up with the national party on things… but for the average Maine Republican I think you nailed it, they are a lot more “libertarian” than anything. That certainly describes me, everyone I’ve ever met in the College Republicans, and basically everyone my age.
Social conservatism of the GWB mold doesn’t sell, and I do disagree slightly with Augusta Insider – while Chandler’s organization and messaging was partly to blame, I think being such an obvious “national Republican” in a state that respects “Yankee Republicans” was something he could never recover from.
I will go to my grave saying that if the Maine GOP just emulated a more libertarian mold, focused on pocketbook issues and promised to keep the government out of our social lives, they would dominate this state like they used to pre-Muskie.
You can be socially conservative and win in Maine. You just have to be pragmatic about your messaging and focus on pocketbook issues. The best example of the kind of candidate who could do this well in 2010 (or in the future if he doesn’t run now) is GOP House Leader Josh Tardy.
We’ve taken a look at the primary and potential candidates today: http://augustainsider.us/2009/07/gopgubernatorialprimary/
And you were right about this:
I think being such an obvious “national Republican” in a state that respects “Yankee Republicans” was something he could never recover from.
But that was as much about his messaging and his failure to respond effectively to Democratic attacks as it was about what he actually believed. If he’d run a better campaign he could have won.
A pragmatic conservative whose messaging focuses on pocketbook issues could win statewide office in Maine. The best example I can think of that sort of candidate in the gubernatorial races (or future open U.S. Senate seats….) is Josh Tardy, but the businessmen candidates might fit that mold as well. You don’t have to be moderate to win, you just have to be effective. We’ve taken a look at the GOP primary now that Mills is in, you might be interested.
Well, you are right of course, AI, but that kind of goes to the route of what I was saying. The voters have to PERCEIVE you as being a social moderate, or at least somebody that doesn’t put a high priority on social issues. You could theoretically have a social con do well in the state, but much like Bob McDonnell in Virginia, he or she will have to shed that message and shed that impression of him as a candidate and focus on pocketbook issues…
Just think of the last two successful statewide Republicans who ran for Governor – Jock McKernan and Peter Cianchette. Jock was a fiscal con more than anything, didn’t talk about social issues at all, and was actually pro-choice as I recall. Peter was a quality, competent technocrat with an economic argument that almost took down the Baldacci Juggernaut in his first election.
The PERCEPTION of a social con turns off voters. You don’t have to be socially liberal, but I think Maine voters want somebody who can take care of the money, and will stay out of their social lives for the most part. If they sniff around a candidate and get the impression he is a southern Republican clone, they aren’t interested.
So, as I said, social conservatives can win, but their campaign and indeed their governance can’t be about those subjects, otherwise the voters will go elsewhere. In other words, they have to be social cons who ignore their own social conservatism.
If a Republican wins the Blaine House in 2010, I GUARANTEE you that it will be because they focus on jobs, the economy, taxes, and similar issues, and if any of them start chatting up the gay marriage stuff, or abortion, etc… they’ll get slaughtered statewide.
If the party as a whole understood that, I think they’d do better in the House, Senate, and Blaine House.
Don’t forget, the perception of being socially liberal in Maine turns off voters too. Baldacci is the most successful statewide Democratic candidate in years, he’s very moderate, and he’s never gotten more than 47% of the vote.
In fact that 47% was the most any Democratic candidate has received statewide in the past nine elections for Governor or U.S. Senate. It’s a high-water mark for statewide non-presidential Democratic candidates in recent years.
If a Democrat wins the Blaine House in 2010, I GUARANTEE you that it will be because they focus on jobs, the economy, taxes, and similar issues, and if any of them start chatting up the gay marriage stuff, or abortion, etc… they’ll get slaughtered statewide.
And don’t forget, in 2000 Bush got 44% of the vote, and in 2004 he actually increased that number to 45%. In other words, even though Obama’s 58% was a high water mark for a Dem candidate statewide in Maine for the past 16 years, it was only a 4% increase over 2004. Given that McCain pulled out of Maine, and had much less $$$ than Bush/Cheney 2004, that’s pretty remarkable.
I’ve been trying to figure out why Republicans are against the tax reform program? I don’t get it. Business owners will pay less income tax AND capital gains tax. It’s like the cost of doing business in the state just dropped from 2% to 4%. How is that not in line with Republican ideals?
I don’t believe for one minute the argument that this legislation was just a ploy to expand the sales tax and subsequently raise the income tax back to current levels.
With this in mind, Peter Mills is the only Republican in the State House to be on the right side of this issue. (IMO) The fact that the State party is leading the charge to overturn this legislation is laughable. Maybe at this year’s convention there will be a vote to change this language in the State party platform:
We believe the Maine tax burden is too high, and that reducing tax rates, including fees, will increase personal income and stimulate the business climate.
So we are agreed that no matter takes the Blaine House, they will not win because they were waxing philosophical on social issues.
This is the first ME Gov election I’ve followed closely, so I have to ask, has ever been a Gov election where the focus wasn’t the economic sphere?
[...] Mills has already submitted his paperwork, and we all knew he was running. But today came his formal announcement, as well as the unveiling [...]
[...] would place him center or center left socially and to the right fiscally. As Pine Tree Politics has noted, recent votes and actions by Senator Mills may point to another conclusion. Mills’ support [...]
I disagree on Chandler. The 2 “ladies” that ran got Baldy elected. The vote was simply too split. As for Peter, He knows I can’t stand him and most Republicans laugh at the thought of him. He better not win, he is the GWB of Maine, and would simply bring the state and the party down.
If by the two ladies you mean former Democrat Barbara Merrill and Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche, then I have to vehemently disagree with your logic. I think it is pretty safe to say that Woodcock didn’t lose anywhere near as many votes to those two as Baldacci did. Even if it was 50/50 (which, come on, I think we all know it wasn’t) that would have kept it a comfortable Baldacci win.
Woodcock lost because he ran a very poor campaign, and let himself be tagged with social conservatism. That is nobody’s fault but his.
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